Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · GelreDome
Vitesse
De Graafschap
Vitesse vs De Graafschap prediction & analysis
Vitesse or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.33
Value bet: Vitesse to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vitesse 2.0 – 1.1 De Graafschap expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vitesse hold the edge on home soil with a 56% chance of winning, against 21% for De Graafschap.
Vitesse have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. De Graafschap have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.0 for Vitesse, 1.1 for De Graafschap). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Vitesse have won 1, De Graafschap have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Vitesse or draw at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Vitesse to win at 1.95 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vitesse to win | 56% | 1.78 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Vitesse or draw | 79% | 1.27 | 1.33 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 64% | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.65 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.65 | 1.57 |
| Half-time result | Vitesse ahead at half-time | 42% | 2.38 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vitesse / FT Vitesse | 36% | 2.80 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 | 10% | 10.13 | – |
Form
Vitesse – last 6
| 2 Nov | @ Jong Ajax | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Oct | @ VVV Venlo | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Oct | vs Emmen | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ FC Eindhoven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | @ FC Volendam | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs NAC Breda | 2–2 | D |
De Graafschap – last 6
| 30 Oct | @ FC Volendam | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Oct | @ Roda | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Oct | vs Waalwijk | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Oct | @ Jong Ajax | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ FC Eindhoven | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 8 Mar 2026 | De Graafschap v Vitesse | 1–4 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
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MVV2
1Emmen to win
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our pick is Vitesse or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
On our numbers Vitesse have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and De Graafschap 21%.
How many goals will there be in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Vitesse vs De Graafschap (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at GelreDome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.