Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · De GeusseltMVV vs Heracles prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: MVV 1.2 – 2.6 Heracles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Heracles travel as clear favourites – 67% to win, against 13% for MVV.
MVV have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.7 per game. Heracles have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. Heracles come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.8 goals (1.2 for MVV, 2.6 for Heracles). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 1–3 (8%), 0–2 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.55.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Heracles to win ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Heracles or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Half-time result | Heracles ahead at half-time ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Heracles / FT Heracles ✓ | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.06 | – |
Form
MVV – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ NAC Breda | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ FC OSS | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Helmond Sport | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Waalwijk | 1–6 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Almere City FC | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Roda | 1–1 | D |
Heracles – last 6
| 9 Oct | vs Waalwijk | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | @ Helmond Sport | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Vitesse | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Almere City FC | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong AZ | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs De Graafschap | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and Heracles.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for MVV vs Heracles?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win MVV vs Heracles?
On our numbers MVV have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Heracles 67%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Heracles?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is MVV vs Heracles?
MVV vs Heracles (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.