Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · De VijverbergDe Graafschap vs NAC Breda prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: NAC Breda to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: De Graafschap 1.6 – 2.5 NAC Breda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
NAC Breda shade it despite being away from home – 58% to win, against 26% for De Graafschap.
De Graafschap have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 3.0 per game. NAC Breda have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
We expect around 4.2 goals (1.6 for De Graafschap, 2.5 for NAC Breda). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (8%), 1–3 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.39. For a bigger price, NAC Breda to win at 1.91 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | NAC Breda to win ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Half-time result | NAC Breda ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT NAC Breda / FT NAC Breda ✓ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✓ | 8% | 12.35 | – |
Form
De Graafschap – last 6
| 11 Sep | @ Emmen | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ Heracles | 0–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Almere City FC | 1–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ VVV Venlo | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Aug | vs Jong AZ | 2–5 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Helmond Sport | 1–1 | D |
NAC Breda – last 6
| 11 Sep | vs Jong Utrecht | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Waalwijk | 2–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Roda | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Jong Ajax | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | vs VVV Venlo | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Aug | @ FC OSS | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 17% and NAC Breda 58%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
When is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at De Vijverberg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.