First League · Bulgaria · Hristo Botev Stadium
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win @ 3.80 – our chance 32% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Botev Vratsa 1.2 – 0.9 Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Botev Vratsa hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Botev Vratsa have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. Lokomotiv Plovdiv come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Botev Vratsa, 0.9 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Botev Vratsa have won 0, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.48 is close to our fair price of 1.56. For a bigger price, Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at 3.80 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Botev Vratsa to win ✗ | 46% | 2.18 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.36 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.48 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Botev Vratsa / FT Botev Vratsa ✗ | 24% | 4.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.00 | – |
Form
Botev Vratsa – last 6
| 2 Nov | @ Cherno More Varna | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Lokomotiv Sofia | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Fratria | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | @ Botev Plovdiv | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Spartak Varna | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Slavia Sofia | 1–2 | L |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Ludogorets | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Oct | vs Slavia Sofia | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Oct | @ Cherno More Varna | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | @ Yantra 2019 | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Lokomotiv Sofia | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Arda Kardzhali | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Botev Vratsa v Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–2 |
More First League predictions
Slavia Sofia0
Cherno More Varna0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
64%@1.44
✗
FT
Ludogorets2
CSKA 19482
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
77%@1.25
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
On our numbers Botev Vratsa have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 32%.
How many goals will there be in Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (First League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.