Liga MX · Mexico · Estadio León
Leon
Guadalajara Chivas
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction & analysis
Guadalajara Chivas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leon 1.0 – 1.8 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Guadalajara Chivas shade it despite being away from home – 57% to win, against 21% for Leon.
Leon have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 per game. Guadalajara Chivas have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. Guadalajara Chivas come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.0 for Leon, 1.8 for Guadalajara Chivas). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Leon have won 0, Guadalajara Chivas have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Guadalajara Chivas to win at 1.95 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Guadalajara Chivas to win ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Guadalajara Chivas or draw ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Guadalajara Chivas ahead at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas ✗ | 35% | 2.83 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.20 | – |
Form
Leon – last 6
| 2 Nov | @ Cruz Azul | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Toluca | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | @ Tigres UANL | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Club America | 3–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Puebla | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | vs FC Juarez | 2–1 | W |
Guadalajara Chivas – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Atlante FC | 4–2 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Monterrey | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Necaxa | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Tigres UANL | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Atlas | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Oct | vs Club America | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 19 Mar 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas v Leon | 5–0 |
More Liga MX predictions
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Puebla2
1XClub Queretaro or draw
85%@1.22
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Leon have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guadalajara Chivas 57%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio León.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.