Serie A · Italy · New Balance ArenaAtalanta vs Parma prediction & analysis
Atalanta to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atalanta 2.2 – 0.8 Parma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Atalanta are clear favourites at home with a 71% chance of winning, against 12% for Parma.
Atalanta have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.2 per game. Parma have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. Atalanta come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.2 for Atalanta, 0.8 for Parma). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Atalanta to win at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.42.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atalanta to win ✗ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | Atalanta or draw ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Half-time result | Atalanta ahead at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.93 | – |
Form
Atalanta – last 6
| 29 Oct | @ Fiorentina | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Frosinone | 4–4 | D |
| 22 Oct | @ Ajax | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ AC Milan | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Pafos | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Venezia | 3–1 | W |
Parma – last 6
| 28 Oct | vs Udinese | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Oct | @ Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Torino | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Inter | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Como | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atalanta and Parma.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Parma?
Our pick is Atalanta to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Parma 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Parma?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Atalanta vs Parma?
Atalanta vs Parma (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.