Primera A · Colombia · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓
Value bet: Millonarios to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.2 – 1.2 Millonarios expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Deportes Tolima and Millonarios on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Deportes Tolima have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Millonarios have 8 points from their last 6 (1W 5D 0L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for Deportes Tolima, 1.2 for Millonarios). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Deportes Tolima have won 0, Millonarios have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Millonarios to win at 3.25 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportes Tolima to win ✓ | 39% | 2.59 | 2.22 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.37 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima ✓ | 21% | 4.72 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.43 | – |
Form
Deportes Tolima – last 6
| 3 Nov | @ Deportivo Pereira | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Oct | vs Deportivo Pasto | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Águilas Doradas | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Jaguares | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Oct | @ Atletico Nacional | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Chico | 0–0 | D |
Millonarios – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs America de Cali | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs Once Caldas | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Jaguares | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | @ Fortaleza FC | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Barranquilla | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | @ Independiente Medellin | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 24 Apr 2026 | Millonarios v Deportes Tolima | 2–0 |
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✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Millonarios 37%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.