Primera A · Colombia · Estadio Atanasio GirardotIndependiente Medellin vs Once Caldas prediction & analysis
Independiente Medellin or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.9 – 0.8 Once Caldas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Independiente Medellin are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 16% for Once Caldas.
Independiente Medellin have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Once Caldas have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Independiente Medellin, 0.8 for Once Caldas). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Independiente Medellin have won 0, Once Caldas have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Independiente Medellin or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Independiente Medellin to win at 1.95 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Independiente Medellin to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Independiente Medellin or draw ✗ | 84% | 1.18 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Half-time result | Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin ✗ | 39% | 2.56 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.97 | – |
Form
Independiente Medellin – last 6
| 15 Oct | @ Atletico Nacional | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Oct | @ America de Cali | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Santa Fe | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Millonarios | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Junior | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Jaguares | 2–1 | W |
Once Caldas – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Llaneros | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | @ Internacional de Bogota | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Bucaramanga | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Deportivo Pasto | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Deportes Tolima | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs Deportivo Cali | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 3 Apr 2026 | Once Caldas v Independiente Medellin | 1–1 |
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 |  Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 |  Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More Primera A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Once Caldas 16%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 02:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.