Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 3.60 – our chance 38% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +36%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✗38% · @3.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Once Caldas take on Deportes Tolima on Thursday 17 September, kicking off at 00:15 (WAT) at Estadio Palogrande. Once Caldas are 8th with 27 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Once Caldas's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Cali 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Santa Fe 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished Deportes Tolima 2–1 Once Caldas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Once Caldas and 1.3 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Once Caldas 37%, draw 25%, Deportes Tolima 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Deportes Tolima to win at 3.60 – 38% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.73, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Once Caldas 1–1 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Once Caldas37%fair 2.71 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Deportes Tolima38%fair 2.65 · @3.60
2.57Expected goals
1.28Once Caldas xG
1.29Deportes Tolima xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Once Caldas 1.3 – 1.3 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Once Caldas have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportes Tolima 38%.
How many goals will there be in Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Once Caldas 1–1 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?
Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Palogrande.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
