Primera B · Colombia · Estadio Polideportivo SurEnvigado vs Orsomarso prediction & analysis
Envigado to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Envigado 1.5 – 0.6 Orsomarso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Envigado are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 15% for Orsomarso.
Envigado have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. Orsomarso have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.5 for Envigado, 0.6 for Orsomarso). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Envigado to win at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.62. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.15 is our value angle (50% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Envigado to win ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| Double chance | Envigado or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.15 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Envigado / FT Envigado ✗ | 37% | 2.69 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.36 | – |
Form
Envigado – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Depor FC | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | @ Real Cartagena | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Leones FC | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Popayan | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Union Magdalena | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | @ Quindio | 0–1 | L |
Orsomarso – last 6
| 28 Sep | @ Ind. Yumbo | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Sep | @ Real Santander | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Depor FC | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs Tigres FC | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Real Cartagena | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | vs Real Cundinamarca | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Envigado and Orsomarso.
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quindio | 39 | +13 | 70 |
| 2 |  Envigado | 41 | +19 | 68 |
| 3 |  Real Cartagena | 41 | +17 | 65 |
| 4 |  Union Magdalena | 40 | +16 | 65 |
| 5 |  Internacional Palmira | 36 | +10 | 61 |
| 6 |  Tigres FC | 39 | +6 | 53 |
| 7 |  Ind. Yumbo | 34 | +6 | 49 |
| 8 |  Bogota FC | 36 | -6 | 44 |
| 9 |  Real Cundinamarca | 33 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 |  Popayan | 33 | -2 | 41 |
| 11 |  Barranquilla | 36 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 |  Patriotas | 30 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 |  Orsomarso | 30 | -7 | 34 |
| 14 |  Depor FC | 30 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 |  Real Santander | 30 | -17 | 27 |
| 16 |  Leones FC | 30 | -26 | 24 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Envigado vs Orsomarso?
Our pick is Envigado to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Envigado vs Orsomarso?
On our numbers Envigado have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Orsomarso 15%.
How many goals will there be in Envigado vs Orsomarso?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Envigado vs Orsomarso?
Envigado vs Orsomarso (Primera B) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Polideportivo Sur.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.