Value bet: Popayan to win @ 3.30 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPopayan to win ✗38% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.09
Orsomarso vs Popayan preview and prediction
The match
Popayan travel to Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in the Primera B on Monday 12 October (21:30 WAT) to face Orsomarso. Orsomarso are 13th with 17 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Popayan sit 1st on 7 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Orsomarso's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Quindio 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Popayan's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Union Magdalena 1–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Popayan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 February 2026, finished Popayan 2–2 Orsomarso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Orsomarso and 1.1 for Popayan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Popayan to win at 3.30 – 38% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.83, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Orsomarso 1–1 Popayan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orsomarso36%fair 2.76 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.90
Popayan38%fair 2.61 · @3.30
2.21Expected goals
1.08Orsomarso xG
1.13Popayan xG
55%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Orsomarso 1.1 – 1.1 Popayan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Orsomarso vs Popayan?
On our numbers Orsomarso have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Popayan 38%.
How many goals will there be in Orsomarso vs Popayan?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orsomarso vs Popayan?
Our predicted score is Orsomarso 1–1 Popayan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Orsomarso vs Popayan?
Orsomarso vs Popayan (Primera B) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
