Primera División · Peru · Estadio Monumental
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Universitario 2.0 – 0.8 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Universitario are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 14% for UCV Moquegua.
Universitario have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. UCV Moquegua have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.2 scored and 1.5 conceded. Universitario come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.0 for Universitario, 0.8 for UCV Moquegua). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.52. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.10 is our value angle (52% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Universitario to win ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Universitario or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | Universitario ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Universitario / FT Universitario ✗ | 42% | 2.35 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.10 | – |
Form
Universitario – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs Sport Boys | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Nov | @ Atletico Grau | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Juan Pablo II College | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Alianza Atletico | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FBC Melgar | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Deportivo Garcilaso | 0–4 | L |
UCV Moquegua – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Oct | @ ADT | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Alianza Lima | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ FC Cajamarca | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Cienciano | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Juan Pablo II College | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universitario and UCV Moquegua.
More Primera División predictions
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O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.30
✗
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers Universitario have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and UCV Moquegua 14%.
How many goals will there be in Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.