Primera División · Peru · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.9 – 0.7 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Deportivo Garcilaso are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 14% for Comerciantes Unidos.
Deportivo Garcilaso have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.8 per game. Comerciantes Unidos have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Deportivo Garcilaso, 0.7 for Comerciantes Unidos). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Deportivo Garcilaso have won 0, Comerciantes Unidos have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.00 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportivo Garcilaso to win ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.53 |
| Double chance | Deportivo Garcilaso or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Deportivo Garcilaso ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Deportivo Garcilaso / FT Deportivo Garcilaso ✗ | 42% | 2.38 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.50 | – |
Form
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 6
| 2 Nov | @ UTC Cajamarca | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Oct | @ Alianza Atletico | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Oct | vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 4–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ FBC Melgar | 2–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Sport Huancayo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Universitario | 4–0 | W |
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs ADT | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Oct | @ FBC Melgar | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Cienciano | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Sporting Cristal | 2–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Juan Pablo II College | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | @ Alianza Atletico | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 25 May 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos v Deportivo Garcilaso | 0–0 |
More Primera División predictions
Universitario2
UCV Moquegua2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
66%@1.50
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Comerciantes Unidos 14%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.