Primera División · Peru · Estadio Alejandro VillanuevaAlianza Lima vs Cienciano prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 2.1 – 0.7 Cienciano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alianza Lima are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 11% for Cienciano.
Alianza Lima have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Cienciano have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.1 for Alianza Lima, 0.7 for Cienciano). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Alianza Lima have won 1, Cienciano have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.28.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alianza Lima to win ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| Double chance | Alianza Lima or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Alianza Lima ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.67 | – |
Form
Alianza Lima – last 6
| 29 Oct | @ Sporting Cristal | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ UCV Moquegua | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico Grau | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | @ Cusco | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | vs Palestino | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs ADT | 2–0 | W |
Cienciano – last 6
| 29 Oct | vs Atletico Grau | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Comerciantes Unidos | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs UTC Cajamarca | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | @ UCV Moquegua | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Sep | @ ADT | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 16 May 2026 | Cienciano v Alianza Lima | 0–1 |
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -11 | 34 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cienciano 11%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano (Primera División) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.