Primera División · Peru · Estadio Campeones del 36Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction & analysis
Alianza Atletico to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.9 – 0.9 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alianza Atletico are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 16% for Comerciantes Unidos.
Alianza Atletico have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.5 per game. Comerciantes Unidos have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded. Alianza Atletico come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Alianza Atletico, 0.9 for Comerciantes Unidos). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Alianza Atletico have won 0, Comerciantes Unidos have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Alianza Atletico to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is close to our fair price of 1.64.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alianza Atletico to win ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.60 |
| Double chance | Alianza Atletico or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Half-time result | Alianza Atletico ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico ✗ | 39% | 2.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.19 | – |
Form
Alianza Atletico – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Atletico Grau | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs UTC Cajamarca | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ UCV Moquegua | 4–1 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs UTC Cajamarca | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Sporting Cristal | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ ADT | 1–1 | D |
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Sport Huancayo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Universitario | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs FC Cajamarca | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ UTC Cajamarca | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Atletico Grau | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | vs Cusco | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Apr 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos v Alianza Atletico | 1–0 |
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -11 | 34 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Alianza Atletico to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Comerciantes Unidos 16%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.