Primera División · Peru · Estadio Campeones del 36Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.8 – 0.9 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alianza Atletico are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 19% for UTC Cajamarca.
Alianza Atletico have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. UTC Cajamarca have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded. Alianza Atletico come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.8 for Alianza Atletico, 0.9 for UTC Cajamarca). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Alianza Atletico have won 0, UTC Cajamarca have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.34.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alianza Atletico to win ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.64 |
| Double chance | Alianza Atletico or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Alianza Atletico ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico ✓ | 38% | 2.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.27 | – |
Form
Alianza Atletico – last 6
| 30 Aug | @ UCV Moquegua | 4–1 | W |
| 25 Aug | vs UTC Cajamarca | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Sporting Cristal | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ ADT | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Aug | vs Cienciano | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ Alianza Lima | 1–3 | L |
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs Universitario | 2–4 | L |
| 25 Aug | @ Alianza Atletico | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Comerciantes Unidos | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Alianza Lima | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs ADT | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | @ Cusco | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 25 Aug 2026 | Alianza Atletico v UTC Cajamarca | 1–1 |
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -11 | 34 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
More Primera División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and UTC Cajamarca 19%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?
Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.