Primera División · Peru · Estadio Heroes de San RamonUTC Cajamarca vs Universitario prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Universitario to win @ 2.06 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: UTC Cajamarca 0.9 – 1.6 Universitario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Universitario shade it despite being away from home – 54% to win, against 24% for UTC Cajamarca.
UTC Cajamarca have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 per game. Universitario have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Universitario come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.9 for UTC Cajamarca, 1.6 for Universitario). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, UTC Cajamarca have won 0, Universitario have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Universitario to win at 2.06 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Universitario to win ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 2.06 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Universitario / FT Universitario ✗ | 32% | 3.11 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.04 | – |
Form
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
| 25 Aug | @ Alianza Atletico | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Comerciantes Unidos | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Alianza Lima | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs ADT | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | @ Cusco | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Jul | vs UCV Moquegua | 0–0 | D |
Universitario – last 6
| 24 Aug | vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ FC Cajamarca | 3–2 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Sporting Cristal | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Aug | @ Cienciano | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Cusco | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Jul | @ ADT | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Universitario v UTC Cajamarca | 2–0 |
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -11 | 34 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
More Primera División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario?
On our numbers UTC Cajamarca have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Universitario 54%.
How many goals will there be in UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario?
UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.