HNL · Croatia · Stadion Aldo Drosina
Istra 1961
HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: HNK Rijeka to win @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Istra 1961 1.1 – 1.9 HNK Rijeka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
HNK Rijeka shade it despite being away from home – 58% to win, against 25% for Istra 1961.
Istra 1961 have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. HNK Rijeka have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.1 for Istra 1961, 1.9 for HNK Rijeka). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 3 meetings, Istra 1961 have won 1, HNK Rijeka have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, HNK Rijeka to win at 1.88 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | HNK Rijeka to win ✗ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.88 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.64 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.74 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.36 |
| Half-time result | HNK Rijeka ahead at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.45 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT HNK Rijeka / FT HNK Rijeka ✗ | 34% | 2.90 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.14 | – |
Form
Istra 1961 – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs Neretva Metković | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Oct | @ NK Slaven Belupo | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | vs HNK Hajduk Split | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | @ NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ NK Osijek | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs HNK Gorica | 0–1 | L |
HNK Rijeka – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs NK Varazdin | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Oct | @ Dinamo Zagreb | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | @ Karlovac 1919 | 4–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | @ Rudes | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ NK Slaven Belupo | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs HNK Hajduk Split | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Aug 2026 | HNK Rijeka v Istra 1961 | 3–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | Istra 1961 v HNK Rijeka | 0–0 |
| 15 Mar 2026 | HNK Rijeka v Istra 1961 | 0–2 |
More HNL predictions
HNK Gorica3
NK Slaven Belupo5
GGBoth teams to score
63%@1.59
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
On our numbers Istra 1961 have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 17% and HNK Rijeka 58%.
How many goals will there be in Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka?
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka (HNL) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.