Niger vs Mauritania prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
Value bet: Mauritania to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Niger 1.0 – 0.9 Mauritania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Niger and Mauritania on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Niger have taken 2 points from their last 3 matches (0W 2D 1L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Mauritania have 1 points from their last 2 (0W 1D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 1.9 goals (1.0 for Niger, 0.9 for Mauritania). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.55 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Mauritania to win at 3.20 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Niger to win ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 23% | 4.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.90 | – |
Form
Niger – last 3
| 5 Jun | @ Benin | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | vs Togo | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Mar | @ Libya | 0–0 | D |
Mauritania – last 2
| 5 Jun | @ Angola | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Mar | @ Argentina | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Niger and Mauritania.
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What is the prediction for Niger vs Mauritania?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Niger vs Mauritania?
On our numbers Niger have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mauritania 35%.
How many goals will there be in Niger vs Mauritania?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Niger vs Mauritania?
Niger vs Mauritania (Friendlies) kicks off on Monday 8 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.