Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Guinea-Bissau 1.6 – 0.9 Madagascar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Guinea-Bissau are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 27% for Madagascar.
Guinea-Bissau have taken 7 points from their last 3 matches (2W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.3 per game. Madagascar have 2 points from their last 4 (0W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded. Guinea-Bissau come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.6 for Guinea-Bissau, 0.9 for Madagascar). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Guinea-Bissau to win | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Guinea-Bissau / FT Guinea-Bissau | 34% | 2.97 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 13% | 7.49 | – |
Form
Guinea-Bissau – last 3
| 29 Sep | vs Nigeria | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | @ Tanzania | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Burkina Faso | 1–1 | D |
Madagascar – last 4
| 29 Sep | vs Tanzania | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Sep | @ Nigeria | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Jun | @ Morocco | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Equatorial Guinea | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Comoros | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tunisia | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Gambia | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 |  Madagascar | 6 | -4 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance.
Who will win Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
On our numbers Guinea-Bissau have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Madagascar 27%.
How many goals will there be in Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.