Guinea vs Kenya prediction & analysis
Guinea to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Guinea 1.8 – 0.7 Kenya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Guinea are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 13% for Kenya.
Guinea have taken 1 points from their last 4 matches (0W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 per game. Kenya have 8 points from their last 4 (2W 2D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. Kenya come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for Guinea, 0.7 for Kenya). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Guinea to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is better than our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Guinea to win ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Guinea or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Guinea ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Guinea / FT Guinea ✓ | 42% | 2.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 15% | 6.63 | – |
Form
Guinea – last 4
| 26 Sep | @ South Africa | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Jun | @ Northern Ireland | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Benin | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Mar | vs Togo | 2–2 | D |
Kenya – last 4
| 26 Sep | vs Eritrea | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Lesotho | 4–0 | W |
| 4 Jun | @ Lesotho | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Mar | @ Grenada | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guinea and Kenya.
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Congo DR | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Tanzania | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Guinea | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ethiopia | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Guinea vs Kenya?
Our pick is Guinea to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Guinea vs Kenya?
On our numbers Guinea have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kenya 13%.
How many goals will there be in Guinea vs Kenya?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Guinea vs Kenya?
Guinea vs Kenya (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade 28 Septembre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.