1. Division · Belarus · Volna StadiumVolna vs Smorgon prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Smorgon to win @ 2.68 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Volna 1.5 – 1.6 Smorgon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Volna and Smorgon on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 42% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Volna have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 per game. Smorgon have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. Smorgon come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.5 for Volna, 1.6 for Smorgon). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Volna have won 1, Smorgon have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.55. For a bigger price, Smorgon to win at 2.68 is our value angle (42% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Smorgon to win ✗ | 42% | 2.41 | 2.68 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.65 | 1.48 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.51 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 39% | 2.56 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Smorgon / FT Smorgon ✗ | 24% | 4.21 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.58 | – |
Form
Volna – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Bumprom | 3–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Minsk II | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Osipovichy | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Lida | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Niva | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 1–3 | L |
Smorgon – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Shakhter Soligorsk | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Bumprom | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Minsk II | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Osipovichy | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | @ Lida | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Niva | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 5 Jul 2026 | Smorgon v Volna | 1–3 |
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Slutsk | 32 | +32 | 69 |
| 2 |  Lida | 32 | +15 | 69 |
| 3 |  Niva | 32 | +45 | 68 |
| 4 |  FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 32 | +32 | 63 |
| 5 |  Slonim | 32 | +13 | 53 |
| 6 |  Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 | 32 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 |  Shakhter Soligorsk | 32 | +15 | 50 |
| 8 |  Bumprom | 32 | +7 | 44 |
| 9 |  Volna | 32 | -9 | 44 |
| 10 |  Ostrovets FC | 32 | 0 | 43 |
| 11 |  Smorgon | 32 | -6 | 39 |
| 12 |  Dinamo Minsk II | 31 | -3 | 38 |
| 13 |  Minsk II | 32 | -15 | 36 |
| 14 |  Orsha | 32 | -19 | 36 |
| 15 |  Uni Minsk | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 16 |  Gomel II | 32 | -25 | 24 |
| 17 |  Osipovichy | 32 | -45 | 24 |
| 18 |  BATE II | 31 | -33 | 22 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Volna vs Smorgon?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Volna vs Smorgon?
On our numbers Volna have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Smorgon 42%.
How many goals will there be in Volna vs Smorgon?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Volna vs Smorgon?
Volna vs Smorgon (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Volna Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.