Premier League · Jamaica · Edward Seaga Sports ComplexTivoli Gardens vs Chapelton prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tivoli Gardens 1.2 – 1.0 Chapelton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tivoli Gardens hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 33% for Chapelton.
Tivoli Gardens have taken 2 points from their last 3 matches (0W 2D 1L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Chapelton have 3 points from their last 3 (1W 0D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.2 for Tivoli Gardens, 1.0 for Chapelton). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.55.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tivoli Gardens to win ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Tivoli Gardens / FT Tivoli Gardens ✗ | 24% | 4.23 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.35 | – |
Form
Tivoli Gardens – last 3
| 19 Mar | vs Arnett Gardens | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Mar | vs Mount Pleasant Academy | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Feb | @ Waterhouse | 1–1 | D |
Chapelton – last 3
| 19 Mar | @ Racing United | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Feb | @ Racing United | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Feb | vs Treasure Beach | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tivoli Gardens and Chapelton.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tru-Juice | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 2 |  Waterhouse | 8 | +16 | 18 |
| 3 |  Racing United | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Montego Bay United | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mount Pleasant Academy | 8 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 |  Tivoli Gardens | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 |  Arnett Gardens | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 |  Portmore United | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 |  Cavalier | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Chapelton | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 |  Dunbeholden | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Molynes United | 9 | -11 | 7 |
| 13 |  Treasure Beach | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 |  Humble Lions | 8 | -19 | 2 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton?
On our numbers Tivoli Gardens have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chapelton 33%.
How many goals will there be in Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton?
Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Edward Seaga Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.