Gamma Ethniki Group 3 · Greece · Athanasios Diakos Stadium
Lamia vs Aris Filiates prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Value bet: Aris Filiates to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lamia 1.2 – 1.0 Aris Filiates expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lamia hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 32% for Aris Filiates.
Lamia have taken 2 points from their last 2 matches (0W 2D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Aris Filiates have 3 points from their last 2 (1W 0D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.2 for Lamia, 1.0 for Aris Filiates). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.59. For a bigger price, Aris Filiates to win at 3.40 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lamia to win ✗ | 45% | 2.22 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lamia / FT Lamia ✗ | 24% | 4.17 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.23 | – |
Form
Lamia – last 2
| 21 Feb | @ Anagennisi Artas | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Feb | vs Asteras Stavros | 1–1 | D |
Aris Filiates – last 2
| 1 Mar | @ Proodos Rogon | 3–2 | W |
| 21 Feb | vs Tilikratis | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lamia and Aris Filiates.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lamia vs Aris Filiates?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Lamia vs Aris Filiates?
On our numbers Lamia have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aris Filiates 32%.
How many goals will there be in Lamia vs Aris Filiates?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Lamia vs Aris Filiates?
Lamia vs Aris Filiates (Gamma Ethniki Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Athanasios Diakos Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.