Segunda División · Chile · Estadio Municipal de SalamancaMunicipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Municipal Salamanca to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Municipal Salamanca 1.5 – 0.7 Real San Joaquín expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Municipal Salamanca hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 21% for Real San Joaquín.
Municipal Salamanca have taken 5 points from their last 3 matches (1W 2D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Real San Joaquín have 4 points from their last 3 (1W 1D 1L), averaging 2.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.5 for Municipal Salamanca, 0.7 for Real San Joaquín). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.25. For a bigger price, Municipal Salamanca to win at 1.80 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Municipal Salamanca to win ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Municipal Salamanca / FT Municipal Salamanca ✗ | 34% | 2.95 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.99 | – |
Form
Municipal Salamanca – last 3
| 21 Jun | @ Colina | 2–1 | W |
| 31 May | vs Santiago City | 0–0 | D |
| 25 May | @ Provincial Ovalle | 1–1 | D |
Real San Joaquín – last 3
| 21 Jun | @ Provincial Ovalle | 6–1 | W |
| 7 Jun | vs Concón National | 0–1 | L |
| 25 May | @ Santiago City | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Municipal Salamanca and Real San Joaquín.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín?
On our numbers Municipal Salamanca have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Real San Joaquín 21%.
How many goals will there be in Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín?
Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Salamanca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.