Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Recife to win ✓75% · @1.12
Double chanceSport Recife or draw ✓95% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓14% · fair 6.97
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta preview and prediction
The match
Sport Recife host Ponte Preta in the Serie B on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Sport Recife are 9th with 55 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Ponte Preta sit 20th on 15 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 40 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sport Recife's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Ceara 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Ponte Preta's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to São Bernardo 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Sport Recife arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.4 for Sport Recife and 0.6 for Ponte Preta. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Recife 75%, draw 20%, Ponte Preta 5%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 53% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sport Recife 2–0 Ponte Preta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Recife75%fair 1.34 · @1.12
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @8.50
Ponte Preta5%fair 18.34 · @15.00
2.98Expected goals
2.38Sport Recife xG
0.60Ponte Preta xG
53%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–012%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 2.4 – 0.6 Ponte Preta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✓
75%
1.34
1.12
Double chance
Sport Recife or draw✓
95%
1.06
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.73
Half-time result
Sport Recife ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✓
52%
1.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
14%
6.97
–
Form
Sport Recife – last 6
LLWLWW
5 Sep
@ Ceara
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
24 Aug
vs America Mineiro
3–0
W
19 Aug
@ Avai
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Londrina
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Vila Nova
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Ponte Preta – last 6
LLLLDL
6 Sep
vs São Bernardo
0–2
L
30 Aug
@ America Mineiro
0–2
L
23 Aug
vs Avai
0–2
L
20 Aug
@ Vila Nova
0–6
L
14 Aug
vs Nautico Recife
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Ceara
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Ponte Preta.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ponte Preta 5%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 2–0 Ponte Preta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
