Esiliiga A · Estonia · Nike Arena

Elva

DDDLW
2–1
FT

Nõmme United II

WLLLW

Elva vs Nõmme United II prediction & analysis

71%
Footrivo pick

Both teams to score

Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.28Odds
2

Value bet: Nõmme United II to win @ 2.72 – our chance 39% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultNõmme United II to win ✗39% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓71% · @1.28
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.37

Win chances

Elva39%fair 2.54 · @2.11
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.74
Nõmme United II39%fair 2.53 · @2.72
3.51Expected goals
1.75Elva xG
1.76Nõmme United II xG
71%Both score
69%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–15%
1–05%

From our goals model: Elva 1.8 – 1.8 Nõmme United II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Elva and Nõmme United II on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Elva have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. Nõmme United II have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.

We expect around 3.5 goals (1.8 for Elva, 1.8 for Nõmme United II). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).

In their last 2 meetings, Elva have won 1, Nõmme United II have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.41. For a bigger price, Nõmme United II to win at 2.72 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNõmme United II to win ✗39%2.532.72 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.271.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓71%1.411.28
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓87%1.161.08
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69%1.441.28
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓51%1.961.88
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗36%2.77–
Half-time / full-timeHT Nõmme United II / FT Nõmme United II ✗23%4.28–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%12.37–

Form

Elva – last 6

DDDLWD
1 Novvs Tallinna Kalev0–0D
25 Octvs FCI Levadia II3–3D
18 Oct@ Nõmme Kalju II0–0D
9 Oct@ Tartu Welco0–4L
24 Sepvs Tallinna Kalev3–2W
19 Sepvs FC Tallinn1–1D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Nõmme United II – last 6

WLLLWW
1 Novvs FC Tallinn3–1W
22 Oct@ Flora II2–3L
18 Oct@ Tartu Welco3–4L
9 Octvs FCI Levadia II0–1L
21 Sep@ Nõmme Kalju II3–2W
13 Sepvs Viimsi1–0W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

30 Aug 2026Nõmme United II v Elva0–1
19 Apr 2026Elva v Nõmme United II1–3

More Esiliiga A predictions

FT FC Tallinn1 Tallinna Kalev0 231562 2Tallinna Kalev to win 62%@1.74 ✗ FT Flora II0 FCI Levadia II2 392041 O3.5Over 3.5 goals 59%@1.51 ✗ FT Viimsi10 Nõmme Kalju II0 691615 GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.55 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Elva vs Nõmme United II?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Elva vs Nõmme United II?

On our numbers Elva have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nõmme United II 39%.

How many goals will there be in Elva vs Nõmme United II?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.

When is Elva vs Nõmme United II?

Elva vs Nõmme United II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Nike Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.