Super League · Uzbekistan · Buxoro FA StadioniBuxoro vs Navbahor prediction & analysis
Navbahor or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Navbahor to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Buxoro 0.8 – 1.8 Navbahor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Navbahor travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 18% for Buxoro.
Buxoro have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Navbahor have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. Navbahor come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.8 for Buxoro, 1.8 for Navbahor). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Buxoro have won 1, Navbahor have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Navbahor or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.22. For a bigger price, Navbahor to win at 1.83 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Navbahor to win ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Navbahor or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Half-time result | Navbahor ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Navbahor / FT Navbahor ✗ | 38% | 2.66 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.45 | – |
Form
Buxoro – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Qizilqum | 2–3 | L |
| 24 Aug | @ Kokand-1912 | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Aug | vs Neftchi | 4–1 | W |
| 13 Aug | vs Olmaliq | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Aug | @ Pakhtakor | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Lokomotiv | 2–1 | W |
Navbahor – last 6
| 4 Sep | vs Lokomotiv | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Nasaf | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ Mash'al | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs Nasaf | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | vs Bunyodkor | 4–3 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Surkhon | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 5 Mar 2026 | Navbahor v Buxoro | 0–1 |
Super League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi | 26 | +38 | 61 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor | 27 | +22 | 59 |
| 3 |  Navbahor | 27 | +21 | 55 |
| 4 |  Nasaf | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 5 |  Olmaliq | 27 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv | 27 | +10 | 43 |
| 7 |  Buxoro | 27 | +4 | 42 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 27 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 |  Qizilqum | 27 | -7 | 35 |
| 10 |  Surkhon | 27 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 |  Andijan | 27 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 |  Sogdiana | 27 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 |  Xorazm | 27 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 |  Bunyodkor | 26 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 |  Kokand-1912 | 27 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 |  Mash'al | 27 | -41 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Buxoro vs Navbahor?
Our pick is Navbahor or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Buxoro vs Navbahor?
On our numbers Buxoro have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Navbahor 62%.
How many goals will there be in Buxoro vs Navbahor?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Buxoro vs Navbahor?
Buxoro vs Navbahor (Super League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Buxoro FA Stadioni.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.