Primera C · ArgentinaEl Porvenir vs Central Ballester prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Value bet: El Porvenir to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: El Porvenir 1.4 – 0.6 Central Ballester expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
El Porvenir hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 17% for Central Ballester.
El Porvenir have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Central Ballester have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Central Ballester come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.4 for El Porvenir, 0.6 for Central Ballester). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 0–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%).
In their last 1 meeting, El Porvenir have won 1, Central Ballester have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.48. For a bigger price, El Porvenir to win at 1.91 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | El Porvenir to win ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | El Porvenir or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT El Porvenir / FT El Porvenir ✗ | 33% | 3.02 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.23 | – |
Form
El Porvenir – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ JJ Urquiza | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Yupanqui | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Aug | vs Fénix | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Jul | @ Mercedes | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | vs Lujan | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Jul | @ General Lamadrid | 1–1 | D |
Central Ballester – last 6
| 15 Aug | vs Leandro N. Alem | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Aug | @ Fénix | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Aug | @ Deportivo Paraguayo | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Jul | @ Lujan | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Jul | vs General Lamadrid | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Jul | @ Leones de Rosario | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Apr 2026 | Central Ballester v El Porvenir | 1–2 |
Primera C table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lujan | 32 | +24 | 64 |
| 2 |  Canuelas | 32 | +21 | 61 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Español | 32 | +10 | 52 |
| 4 |  Leones de Rosario | 32 | +6 | 51 |
| 5 |  Central Cordoba | 32 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 |  General Lamadrid | 32 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 |  Sportivo Barracas | 32 | 0 | 40 |
| 8 |  El Porvenir | 32 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 |  Central Ballester | 32 | -5 | 38 |
| 10 |  Atletico Atlas | 32 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 |  Claypole | 32 | -13 | 36 |
| 12 |  Yupanqui | 32 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 |  Fénix | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Deportivo Muñiz | 32 | -15 | 29 |
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Defensores de Cambaceres2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?
On our numbers El Porvenir have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Central Ballester 17%.
How many goals will there be in El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is El Porvenir vs Central Ballester?
El Porvenir vs Central Ballester (Primera C) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.