Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina · Estadio Lorenzo ArandillaBrown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Brown DE Adrogue to win @ 2.30 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Brown DE Adrogue 1.2 – 0.9 Dock Sud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Brown DE Adrogue hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 30% for Dock Sud.
Brown DE Adrogue have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.5 per game. Dock Sud have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Brown DE Adrogue, 0.9 for Dock Sud). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Brown DE Adrogue have won 1, Dock Sud have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.23. For a bigger price, Brown DE Adrogue to win at 2.30 is our value angle (47% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Brown DE Adrogue to win ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | 2.30 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Brown DE Adrogue / FT Brown DE Adrogue ✗ | 25% | 3.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 15% | 6.70 | – |
Form
Brown DE Adrogue – last 6
| 5 Oct | @ Deportivo Merlo | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Deportivo Camioneros | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Sportivo Italiano | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs San Martín Burzaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Villa San Carlos | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Liniers | 1–1 | D |
Dock Sud – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Deportivo Armenio | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Sep | @ Flandria | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Argentino Quilmes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Defensores Unidos | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Comunicaciones | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Ituzaingó | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 30 May 2026 | Dock Sud v Brown DE Adrogue | 0–1 |
Primera B Metropolitana table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Brown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Brown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud?
On our numbers Brown DE Adrogue have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dock Sud 30%.
How many goals will there be in Brown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Brown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud?
Brown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.