Liga Nacional · Guatemala · Estadio Guillermo SlowingAurora vs Achuapa prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Aurora 1.6 – 0.7 Achuapa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Aurora hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 18% for Achuapa.
Aurora have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Achuapa have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 0.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.6 for Aurora, 0.7 for Achuapa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.52. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.10 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Aurora to win ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.77 |
| Double chance | Aurora or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Aurora / FT Aurora ✗ | 35% | 2.87 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 16% | 6.42 | – |
Form
Aurora – last 6
| 23 Mar | @ Malacateco | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Mar | vs Guastatoya | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Mar | @ Municipal | 1–4 | L |
| 11 Mar | @ Mictlán | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | vs Xelajú | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Mar | vs Mixco | 1–1 | D |
Achuapa – last 6
| 21 Mar | vs Mictlán | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Mar | @ Mixco | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Mar | @ Comunicaciones | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Mar | @ Antigua GFC | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | vs Xelajú | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Feb | @ Malacateco | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aurora and Achuapa.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Aurora vs Achuapa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Aurora vs Achuapa?
On our numbers Aurora have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Achuapa 18%.
How many goals will there be in Aurora vs Achuapa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Aurora vs Achuapa?
Aurora vs Achuapa (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.