Liga Nacional · Guatemala · Estadio Winston PinedaAchuapa vs Mictlán prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Achuapa 1.5 – 0.8 Mictlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Achuapa hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 21% for Mictlán.
Achuapa have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Mictlán have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. Mictlán come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.5 for Achuapa, 0.8 for Mictlán). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.27.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Achuapa to win ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.77 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Achuapa / FT Achuapa ✗ | 33% | 2.99 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.42 | – |
Form
Achuapa – last 6
| 18 Mar | @ Mixco | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Mar | @ Comunicaciones | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Mar | @ Antigua GFC | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | vs Xelajú | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Feb | @ Malacateco | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Feb | vs Guastatoya | 1–0 | W |
Mictlán – last 6
| 19 Mar | vs Malacateco | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | @ Guastatoya | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Mar | vs Aurora | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | @ Xelajú | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | @ Mixco | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs Marquense | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Achuapa and Mictlán.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Achuapa vs Mictlán?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Achuapa vs Mictlán?
On our numbers Achuapa have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mictlán 21%.
How many goals will there be in Achuapa vs Mictlán?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Achuapa vs Mictlán?
Achuapa vs Mictlán (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Winston Pineda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.