Liga Nacional · GuatemalaMixco vs Achuapa prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mixco 1.8 – 0.6 Achuapa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mixco are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 14% for Achuapa.
Mixco have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Achuapa have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.8 for Mixco, 0.6 for Achuapa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.31.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mixco to win ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Mixco or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Mixco ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mixco / FT Mixco ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 16% | 6.23 | – |
Form
Mixco – last 6
| 15 Mar | @ Malacateco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Mar | vs Municipal | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | @ Aurora | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Feb | vs Mictlán | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Feb | @ Xelajú | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Feb | @ Marquense | 1–2 | L |
Achuapa – last 6
| 9 Mar | @ Comunicaciones | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Mar | @ Antigua GFC | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | vs Xelajú | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Feb | @ Malacateco | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Feb | vs Guastatoya | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Feb | @ Municipal | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mixco and Achuapa.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mixco vs Achuapa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mixco vs Achuapa?
On our numbers Mixco have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Achuapa 14%.
How many goals will there be in Mixco vs Achuapa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Mixco vs Achuapa?
Mixco vs Achuapa (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.