Liga Nacional · Guatemala · Estadio Mario CamposecoXelajú vs Mictlán prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Xelajú 1.8 – 0.6 Mictlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Xelajú are clear favourites at home with a 70% chance of winning, against 12% for Mictlán.
Xelajú have taken 7 points from their last 4 matches (2W 1D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Mictlán have 5 points from their last 4 (1W 2D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.8 for Xelajú, 0.6 for Mictlán). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (15%), 3–0 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.31.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Xelajú to win ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.35 |
| Double chance | Xelajú or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Xelajú ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Xelajú / FT Xelajú ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.92 | – |
Form
Xelajú – last 4
| 25 Feb | @ Achuapa | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Feb | vs Mixco | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | @ Malacateco | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Feb | vs Marquense | 4–2 | W |
Mictlán – last 4
| 26 Feb | @ Mixco | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs Marquense | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Feb | @ Comunicaciones | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Feb | vs Antigua GFC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xelajú and Mictlán.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Xelajú vs Mictlán?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Xelajú vs Mictlán?
On our numbers Xelajú have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Mictlán 12%.
How many goals will there be in Xelajú vs Mictlán?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Xelajú vs Mictlán?
Xelajú vs Mictlán (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mario Camposeco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.