Value bet: Achuapa to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAchuapa to win ✗44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.41
Achuapa vs Xelajú preview and prediction
The match
Xelajú travel to Estadio Winston Pineda in the Liga Nacional on Wednesday 25 February (22:00 WAT) to face Achuapa. Achuapa are 12th with 19 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Xelajú sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Achuapa's last 3: DWD Most recently they drew with Malacateco 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Xelajú's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Mixco 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Achuapa and 1.1 for Xelajú. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Achuapa 44%, draw 24%, Xelajú 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Achuapa to win at 2.45 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Achuapa 1–1 Xelajú. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Achuapa44%fair 2.28 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @2.88
Xelajú32%fair 3.10 · @2.95
2.41Expected goals
1.33Achuapa xG
1.09Xelajú xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Achuapa 1.3 – 1.1 Xelajú expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Achuapa to win✗
44%
2.28
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Achuapa / FT Achuapa✗
24%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.41
–
Form
Achuapa – last 3
DWD
21 Feb
@ Malacateco
1–1
D
17 Feb
vs Guastatoya
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Municipal
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Xelajú – last 3
WLW
23 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
19 Feb
@ Malacateco
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Marquense
4–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Achuapa and Xelajú.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Achuapa vs Xelajú?
On our numbers Achuapa have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Xelajú 32%.
How many goals will there be in Achuapa vs Xelajú?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Achuapa vs Xelajú?
Our predicted score is Achuapa 1–1 Xelajú, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Achuapa vs Xelajú?
Achuapa vs Xelajú (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Winston Pineda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
