Primera Nacional · Argentina · Estadio Centenario Ciudad de QuilmesQuilmes vs San Martin Tucuman prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 2.05 · Won ✓
Value bet: San Martin Tucuman to win @ 3.80 – our chance 34% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Quilmes 1.1 – 0.9 San Martin Tucuman expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Quilmes hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 34% for San Martin Tucuman.
Quilmes have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. San Martin Tucuman have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 1.9 goals (1.1 for Quilmes, 0.9 for San Martin Tucuman). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
In their last 1 meeting, Quilmes have won 0, San Martin Tucuman have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.05 is better than our fair price of 1.98, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, San Martin Tucuman to win at 3.80 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Quilmes to win ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | 2.05 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 22% | 4.45 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.61 | – |
Form
Quilmes – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Atletico DE Rafaela | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Agropecuario | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Tristan Suarez | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Club Atlético Güemes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Chacarita Juniors | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs San Martin S.J. | 1–0 | W |
San Martin Tucuman – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Midland | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Atlanta | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | @ Gimnasia Jujuy | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | @ Atletico DE Rafaela | 2–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Agropecuario | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 7 Jun 2026 | San Martin Tucuman v Quilmes | 0–0 |
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tristan Suarez | 36 | +18 | 64 |
| 2 |  Atlanta | 36 | +8 | 62 |
| 3 |  Temperley | 36 | +12 | 61 |
| 4 |  Gimnasia Jujuy | 36 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Midland | 36 | +14 | 55 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Maipu | 36 | +9 | 52 |
| 7 |  Colegiales | 36 | +4 | 52 |
| 8 |  Gimnasia Y Tiro | 36 | +2 | 52 |
| 9 |  San Martin S.J. | 36 | +6 | 51 |
| 10 |  San Martin Tucuman | 36 | +2 | 47 |
| 11 |  Atletico DE Rafaela | 36 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 |  Agropecuario | 36 | -8 | 46 |
| 13 |  Quilmes | 36 | +3 | 45 |
| 14 |  Chacarita Juniors | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 15 |  Almagro | 36 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 |  Patronato | 36 | -6 | 38 |
| 17 |  Nueva Chicago | 36 | -11 | 37 |
| 18 |  Club Atlético Güemes | 36 | -34 | 27 |
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What is the prediction for Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman?
On our numbers Quilmes have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and San Martin Tucuman 34%.
How many goals will there be in Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman?
Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.