Eliteserien · Norway · Intility ArenaValerenga vs Fredrikstad prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Fredrikstad to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Valerenga 1.7 – 1.6 Fredrikstad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Valerenga and Fredrikstad on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Valerenga have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 3.5 and conceding 2.7 per game. Fredrikstad have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. Fredrikstad come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.7 for Valerenga, 1.6 for Fredrikstad). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Valerenga have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.49. For a bigger price, Fredrikstad to win at 3.30 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Valerenga to win ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Valerenga / FT Valerenga ✗ | 25% | 4.08 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.61 | – |
Form
Valerenga – last 6
| 17 Sep | @ Skeid | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Lillestrom | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Sarpsborg 08 FF | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Molde | 3–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Christiania BK | 7–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Aalesund | 5–5 | D |
Fredrikstad – last 6
| 16 Sep | @ Stjørdals-Blink | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | vs BodoGlimt | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Lillestrom | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Eidsvold IF | 7–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Kristiansund BK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 2026 | Valerenga v Fredrikstad | 3–1 |
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 26 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 26 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 |  Rosenborg | 26 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 26 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 |  Molde | 26 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 |  Tromso | 26 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 26 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 26 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 |  Ham-Kam | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 26 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 26 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 26 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Start | 26 | -32 | 19 |
More Eliteserien predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?
On our numbers Valerenga have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fredrikstad 36%.
How many goals will there be in Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
When is Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?
Valerenga vs Fredrikstad (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Intility Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.