USL League One · USA · Paradise Coast Sports ComplexNaples vs NY Cosmos prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Naples 1.5 – 1.5 NY Cosmos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Naples and NY Cosmos on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Naples have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. NY Cosmos have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.5 for Naples, 1.5 for NY Cosmos). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Naples have won 0, NY Cosmos have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.55.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Naples to win ✓ | 40% | 2.47 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Naples / FT Naples ✓ | 23% | 4.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 11.63 | – |
Form
Naples – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Fort Wayne | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ One Knoxville | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Boise | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Greenville Triumph | 0–4 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Union Omaha | 2–0 | W |
NY Cosmos – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Richmond Kickers | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Westchester SC | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Boise | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Fort Wayne | 4–2 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Sarasota Paradise | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Union Omaha | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 9 Jul 2026 | NY Cosmos v Naples | 1–0 |
USL League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Independence | 32 | +28 | 66 |
| 2 |  Union Omaha | 32 | +20 | 62 |
| 3 |  Boise | 32 | +10 | 58 |
| 4 |  Forward Madison | 32 | +24 | 56 |
| 5 |  Spokane Velocity | 32 | +6 | 54 |
| 6 |  One Knoxville | 32 | +16 | 54 |
| 7 |  Chattanooga Red Wolves | 32 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Naples | 32 | -7 | 46 |
| 9 |  Fort Wayne | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 10 |  Westchester SC | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 |  Sarasota Paradise | 32 | -2 | 40 |
| 12 |  Corpus Christi | 32 | -15 | 37 |
| 13 |  Alta | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Portland Hearts of Pine | 32 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 |  Greenville Triumph | 32 | -23 | 30 |
| 16 |  NY Cosmos | 32 | -26 | 27 |
| 17 |  Richmond Kickers | 32 | -28 | 26 |
More USL League One predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Naples vs NY Cosmos?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Naples vs NY Cosmos?
On our numbers Naples have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and NY Cosmos 37%.
How many goals will there be in Naples vs NY Cosmos?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Naples vs NY Cosmos?
Naples vs NY Cosmos (USL League One) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.