USL League One · USA · Premier Sports CampusSarasota Paradise vs Naples prediction & analysis
Sarasota Paradise or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Sarasota Paradise to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sarasota Paradise 1.9 – 0.9 Naples expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sarasota Paradise are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 18% for Naples.
Sarasota Paradise have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Naples have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.9 for Sarasota Paradise, 0.9 for Naples). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Sarasota Paradise have won 1, Naples have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Sarasota Paradise or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.22. For a bigger price, Sarasota Paradise to win at 1.75 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sarasota Paradise to win ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Sarasota Paradise or draw ✗ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.77 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Half-time result | Sarasota Paradise ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sarasota Paradise / FT Sarasota Paradise ✗ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.90 | – |
Form
Sarasota Paradise – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Fort Wayne | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Richmond Kickers | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Charlotte Independence | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Portland Hearts of Pine | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Greenville Triumph | 6–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Forward Madison | 1–1 | D |
Naples – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ Corpus Christi | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Richmond Kickers | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs NY Cosmos | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Fort Wayne | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ One Knoxville | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 7 Jun 2026 | Naples v Sarasota Paradise | 0–2 |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Naples v Sarasota Paradise | 2–0 |
USL League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Independence | 32 | +28 | 66 |
| 2 |  Union Omaha | 32 | +20 | 62 |
| 3 |  Boise | 32 | +10 | 58 |
| 4 |  Forward Madison | 32 | +24 | 56 |
| 5 |  Spokane Velocity | 32 | +6 | 54 |
| 6 |  One Knoxville | 32 | +16 | 54 |
| 7 |  Chattanooga Red Wolves | 32 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Naples | 32 | -7 | 46 |
| 9 |  Fort Wayne | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 10 |  Westchester SC | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 |  Sarasota Paradise | 32 | -2 | 40 |
| 12 |  Corpus Christi | 32 | -15 | 37 |
| 13 |  Alta | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Portland Hearts of Pine | 32 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 |  Greenville Triumph | 32 | -23 | 30 |
| 16 |  NY Cosmos | 32 | -26 | 27 |
| 17 |  Richmond Kickers | 32 | -28 | 26 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?
Our pick is Sarasota Paradise or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?
On our numbers Sarasota Paradise have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Naples 18%.
How many goals will there be in Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?
Sarasota Paradise vs Naples (USL League One) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Premier Sports Campus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.