USL Championship · USA · Toyota StadiumLexington vs FC Tulsa prediction & analysis
Lexington to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lexington 1.9 – 0.7 FC Tulsa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lexington are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 13% for FC Tulsa.
Lexington have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. FC Tulsa have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Lexington come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.9 for Lexington, 0.7 for FC Tulsa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Lexington have won 0, FC Tulsa have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Lexington to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lexington to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Lexington or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.38 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Half-time result | Lexington ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lexington / FT Lexington ✗ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.97 | – |
Form
Lexington – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs El Paso Locomotive | 3–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Monterey Bay | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Orange County SC | 6–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Oakland Roots | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Sporting JAX | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Colorado Springs | 0–1 | L |
FC Tulsa – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Sacramento Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Oct | vs New Mexico United | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ El Paso Locomotive | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Brooklyn | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Phoenix Rising | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 2026 | FC Tulsa v Lexington | 0–0 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Louisville City2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lexington vs FC Tulsa?
Our pick is Lexington to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Lexington vs FC Tulsa?
On our numbers Lexington have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FC Tulsa 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs FC Tulsa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Lexington vs FC Tulsa?
Lexington vs FC Tulsa (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.