Serie A · Brazil · Neo Quimica ArenaCorinthians vs Mirassol prediction & analysis
Corinthians or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Corinthians to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.8 – 0.7 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Corinthians are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 14% for Mirassol.
Corinthians have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 per game. Mirassol have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Mirassol come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for Corinthians, 0.7 for Mirassol). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Corinthians have won 0, Mirassol have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Corinthians or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Corinthians to win at 1.75 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Corinthians to win ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Corinthians or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Half-time result | Corinthians ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.71 | – |
Form
Corinthians – last 6
| 24 Oct | @ Vasco DA Gama | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Palmeiras | 1–4 | L |
| 7 Oct | @ Internacional | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Fluminense | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 0–1 | L |
Mirassol – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Internacional | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | @ RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Botafogo | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Vitoria | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 4 May 2026 | Mirassol v Corinthians | 2–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Our pick is Corinthians or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Corinthians vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mirassol 14%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Mirassol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Corinthians vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.