Serie A · Brazil · Estádio Urbano CaldeiraSantos vs Bahia prediction & analysis
Santos to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Santos 1.9 – 0.9 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Santos are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 20% for Bahia.
Santos have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 per game. Bahia have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 for Santos, 0.9 for Bahia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Santos to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Santos to win ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Half-time result | Santos ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Santos / FT Santos ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.88 | – |
Form
Santos – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Flamengo | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Atletico-MG | 2–4 | L |
Bahia – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Flamengo | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Mirassol | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | @ Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Atletico Paranaense | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ RB Bragantino | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Bahia.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Bahia?
Our pick is Santos to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Santos vs Bahia?
On our numbers Santos have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Bahia 20%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Santos vs Bahia?
Santos vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.