Serie A · Brazil · BarradaoVitoria vs Gremio prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.88 · bookmaker 1.83 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Gremio to win @ 3.40 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.2 – 1.2 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Vitoria and Gremio on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Vitoria have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. Gremio have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Gremio come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for Vitoria, 1.2 for Gremio). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Vitoria have won 0, Gremio have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.83 is close to our fair price of 1.88. For a bigger price, Gremio to win at 3.40 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vitoria to win ✓ | 39% | 2.57 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vitoria / FT Vitoria ✗ | 21% | 4.70 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 11% | 9.32 | – |
Form
Vitoria – last 6
| 3 Sep | vs Vasco DA Gama | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Aug | @ Vasco DA Gama | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | vs Bahia | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Botafogo | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Flamengo | 0–2 | L |
Gremio – last 6
| 4 Sep | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Chapecoense-sc | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Internacional | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ RB Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Atletico-MG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Sao Paulo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 19 Mar 2026 | Gremio v Vitoria | 2–0 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Vitoria vs Gremio?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gremio 37%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Vitoria vs Gremio?
Vitoria vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Barradao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.