Serie A · Brazil · Arena CondáChapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama prediction & analysis
Vasco DA Gama to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.59
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 0.9 – 2.0 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vasco DA Gama travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 18% for Chapecoense-sc.
Chapecoense-sc have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (1W 0D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.5 per game. Vasco DA Gama have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded. Vasco DA Gama come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (0.9 for Chapecoense-sc, 2.0 for Vasco DA Gama). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 0–2 (11%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.59 is close to our fair price of 1.57.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vasco DA Gama to win | 64% | 1.57 | 1.59 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 82% | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 59% | 1.70 | 1.64 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | 1.15 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 1.61 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Half-time result | Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama | 40% | 2.51 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 | 11% | 9.36 | – |
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Oct | @ RB Bragantino | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Botafogo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Atletico Paranaense | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Oct | @ Vitoria | 0–4 | L |
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
| 8 Nov | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Nov | @ Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Nov | @ Palmeiras | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Oct | vs Flamengo | 1–4 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Corinthians | 3–2 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Boca Juniors | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.59.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Vasco DA Gama 64%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.