Serie A · Brazil · Estádio Nilton SantosBotafogo vs Gremio prediction & analysis
Botafogo to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.8 – 0.9 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Botafogo hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 17% for Gremio.
Botafogo have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Gremio have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.8 for Botafogo, 0.9 for Gremio). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Botafogo to win at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is close to our fair price of 1.68.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Botafogo to win ✓ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| Double chance | Botafogo or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Half-time result | Botafogo ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo ✗ | 38% | 2.65 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.31 | – |
Form
Botafogo – last 6
| 13 Sep | vs RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Palmeiras | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Flamengo | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Aug | vs Atletico Paranaense | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Cienciano | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Vitoria | 0–1 | L |
Gremio – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Vitoria | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Chapecoense-sc | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Internacional | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ RB Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Gremio.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Gremio?
Our pick is Botafogo to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Botafogo vs Gremio?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gremio 17%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Botafogo vs Gremio?
Botafogo vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.