Major League Soccer · USA · Subaru Park

Philadelphia Union

LDLDW
4–1
FT

Toronto FC

LWLWD

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC prediction & analysis

66%
Footrivo pick

Philadelphia Union to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.45Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultPhiladelphia Union to win ✓66% · @1.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30

Win chances

Philadelphia Union66%fair 1.53 · @1.45
Draw16%fair 6.08 · @5.00
Toronto FC18%fair 5.56 · @5.75
3.40Expected goals
2.30Philadelphia Union xG
1.10Toronto FC xG
61%Both score
66%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%

From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 2.3 – 1.1 Toronto FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Philadelphia Union are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 18% for Toronto FC.

Philadelphia Union have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Toronto FC have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.

We expect around 3.4 goals (2.3 for Philadelphia Union, 1.1 for Toronto FC). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Philadelphia Union have won 0, Toronto FC have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 6.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Philadelphia Union to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.45 is close to our fair price of 1.53.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPhiladelphia Union to win ✓66%1.531.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84%1.201.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓61%1.641.57
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85%1.181.12
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66%1.521.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗55%1.831.73
Half-time resultPhiladelphia Union ahead at half-time ✓48%2.09–
Half-time / full-timeHT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union ✓42%2.37–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.30–

Form

Philadelphia Union – last 6

LDLDWW
31 Oct@ FC Cincinnati0–1L
29 Oct@ Nashville SC0–0D
25 Octvs New England Revolution1–2L
17 Octvs Charlotte2–2D
15 Oct@ Chicago Fire3–1W
11 Octvs Real Salt Lake2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Toronto FC – last 6

LWLWDW
1 Nov@ Atlanta United FC1–3L
29 Octvs DC United2–1W
24 Oct@ Columbus Crew2–4L
18 Oct@ New York Red Bulls2–0W
15 Octvs Orlando City SC3–3D
10 Octvs CF Montreal2–1W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 Apr 2026Toronto FC v Philadelphia Union3–3

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC342383+4677
2Inter Miami3416126+2160
3New England Revolution3418412+858
4Chicago Fire3416711+1055
5Charlotte3415910+1554
6Philadelphia Union3414812+1450
7Columbus Crew3414515+747
8Orlando City SC3413714-1546
9FC Cincinnati34121012-846
10New York Red Bulls3412616-1442
11New York City FC34101212+442
12Toronto FC3491213-1539
13Atlanta United FC349619-1733
14DC United3471215-2233
15CF Montreal346820-3226

More Major League Soccer predictions

League hub →
FT Inter Miami3 Charlotte3 71209 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓ FT FC Cincinnati0 Nashville SC2 362142 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✗ FT New York Red Bulls3 Atlanta United FC0 631423 1New York Red Bulls to win 63%@1.85 ✓ FT CF Montreal0 Vancouver Whitecaps2 172459 GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.44 ✗ FT Chicago Fire3 Columbus Crew4 651322 1Chicago Fire to win 65%@1.95 ✗ FT Orlando City SC1 New England Revolution0 461934 GGBoth teams to score 71%@1.33 ✗ FT DC United0 New York City FC1 342244 GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.53 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

Our pick is Philadelphia Union to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.

Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Toronto FC 18%.

How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

When is Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.