Mexico vs South Africa prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mexico 1.9 – 0.6 South Africa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mexico are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 9% for South Africa.
Mexico have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.3 per game. South Africa have 2 points from their last 3 (0W 2D 1L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. Mexico come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.9 for Mexico, 0.6 for South Africa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (15%), 3–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.32. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.30 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mexico to win ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.43 |
| Double chance | Mexico or draw ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 2.30 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Mexico ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mexico / FT Mexico ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.20 | – |
Form
Mexico – last 6
| 5 Jun | vs Serbia | 5–1 | W |
| 31 May | vs Australia | 1–0 | W |
| 23 May | vs Ghana | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Apr | vs Belgium | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | vs Portugal | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Feb | vs Iceland | 4–0 | W |
South Africa – last 3
| 29 May | vs Nicaragua | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Mar | vs Panama | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Mar | vs Panama | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and South Africa.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mexico vs South Africa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mexico vs South Africa?
On our numbers Mexico have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 22% and South Africa 9%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs South Africa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Mexico vs South Africa?
Mexico vs South Africa (World Cup) kicks off on Thursday 11 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.