FKF Premier League · KenyaUlinzi Stars vs Mathare United prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Mathare United to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ulinzi Stars 1.1 – 1.0 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Ulinzi Stars have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Mathare United have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Ulinzi Stars come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.1 for Ulinzi Stars, 1.0 for Mathare United). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (12%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.57. For a bigger price, Mathare United to win at 3.00 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ulinzi Stars to win ✓ | 40% | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ulinzi Stars / FT Ulinzi Stars ✗ | 21% | 4.80 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.51 | – |
Form
Ulinzi Stars – last 6
| 13 May | vs AFC Leopards | 0–2 | L |
| 9 May | @ Shabana | 0–0 | D |
| 3 May | vs Tusker | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Apr | vs APS Bomet | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Mar | vs Sofapaka | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | @ Nairobi United | 2–1 | W |
Mathare United – last 6
| 10 May | vs APS Bomet | 0–2 | L |
| 2 May | @ Sofapaka | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Apr | vs Police | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Apr | @ Homeboyz | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | @ Murang'a SEAL | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Feb | vs Shabana | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Ulinzi Stars have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mathare United 36%.
How many goals will there be in Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
When is Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.