FKF Premier League · Kenya
Sofapaka vs Shabana prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sofapaka 0.6 – 1.4 Shabana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Shabana travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 25% for Sofapaka.
Sofapaka have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Shabana have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Shabana come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.6 for Sofapaka, 1.4 for Shabana). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–1 (19%), 0–0 (14%), 0–2 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 87% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Shabana to win ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Shabana / FT Shabana ✗ | 33% | 3.05 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 19% | 5.19 | – |
Form
Sofapaka – last 6
| 11 May | @ Posta Rangers FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 May | vs Mathare United | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Apr | @ APS Bomet | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Apr | vs Bandari | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Mar | @ Ulinzi Stars | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | @ Bidco United | 0–0 | D |
Shabana – last 6
| 17 May | @ Bidco United | 1–0 | W |
| 13 May | @ Mara Sugar | 0–1 | L |
| 9 May | vs Ulinzi Stars | 0–0 | D |
| 2 May | vs Police | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Apr | @ Nairobi United | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Mar | vs Murang'a SEAL | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sofapaka and Shabana.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sofapaka vs Shabana?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 87% chance.
Who will win Sofapaka vs Shabana?
On our numbers Sofapaka have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Shabana 64%.
How many goals will there be in Sofapaka vs Shabana?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
When is Sofapaka vs Shabana?
Sofapaka vs Shabana (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.