FKF Premier League · KenyaMathare United vs APS Bomet prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.9 – 1.1 APS Bomet expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
APS Bomet shade it despite being away from home – 47% to win, against 40% for Mathare United.
Mathare United have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. APS Bomet have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. APS Bomet come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (0.9 for Mathare United, 1.1 for APS Bomet). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 85% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | APS Bomet to win ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.02 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT APS Bomet / FT APS Bomet ✓ | 21% | 4.66 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.04 | – |
Form
Mathare United – last 6
| 2 May | @ Sofapaka | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Apr | vs Police | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Apr | @ Homeboyz | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | @ Murang'a SEAL | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Feb | vs Shabana | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Feb | @ Kariobangi Sharks | 1–1 | D |
APS Bomet – last 6
| 6 May | vs KCB | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | vs Sofapaka | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | @ Posta Rangers FC | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Apr | @ Ulinzi Stars | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Mar | vs Nairobi United | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | @ Mara Sugar | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and APS Bomet.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 85% chance.
Who will win Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 13% and APS Bomet 47%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
When is Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Mathare United vs APS Bomet (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.